Well, well, what do we have here? Going to get pounded again, a dusting, 2-3" or just miss us? Let me guess, its too far out to tell! More updates as the storm approaches.
The two main snow forecast models still have a major disagreement with only 24 hours to go.
The MDL is showing 4-6" across the Kansas City area with 6-8" further southwest.
The local NWS office in Pleasant Hill is offering 2.8" using the Garcia model for now.
A private forecast model that I pay for is showing the 4-6" nearly direct hit and given the fact that model is already 9 hours old, I'd have to rule it out at the moment and lean towards the local NWS predictions. I also didn't use that model in this mornings email because it was going against all thinking at the time.
The problem with forecasting the amount of snow this time is a different in that cold air is already in place with two more fronts to come through before and during tomorrow's snow. This raises the snow potential to nearly 1:18, meaning that as little as 1/4" liquid = 4.5" snow. Most snow ratios are 1:10 = 2.5" [thus, the model differences].
Having explained all the above, I am sticking with this mornings emailed forecast of a local average of the 2.8" with increasing heavier amounts as you go further southwest. Northeast areas such as Liberty and Excelsior Springs may actually not get anything at all.
I'll send out other final Monday update later this afternoon with snow timing and updated amounts projected.
KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com
