Event Report from the 20th-21st

Below is the forecast for the event and then you will see the “summary” props to Gary Brener who is our private forecaster this season and is a local guy and not very well known but pretty accurate.
Winter Storm Warning through 6 AM Thursday
Snow is expected to arrive about noon on the Kansas side spreading over the entire area by early afternoon.
noon- 6 PM 2.1"
6 PM-midnight 4.1" [heavy snow, nearly 1" per hour]
midnite-6 AM 1.0"
Widespread 5-7" totals.
Heaviest snow is now expected from downtown towards Clinton, 6-8"
The actually SUMMARY
Rates:
1-3 PM .45" [.15" per hour]
3-6 1.40" [ nearly a 1/2" per hour]
6-9 2.25 [ 3/4" per hour]---HEAVIEST SNOW
9-M 2.10 [ about 3/4" per hour]
M-3A .54 [.18 per hour]
3-6 .39 [.13 per hour]
Average snow totals: 7.13"
On some of your invoices you will see that we did a refreeze on 1/21 early am, then this band of snow was predicted to come and give us and 1” of snow. So even though we spread salt earlier and on some sites spot treated, if we spot treated we went back and did a full spread. We have discounted some invoices where applicable.
Here was the result of the 1/21 snow that really never occurred but regardless the ground and air temp validated the treatment, see below.
Most of the scattered snow showers this morning have clipped on through the area and some are expected to wrap back around later this afternoon will less than 1" on average.
10 AM....air 17', ground 25'
current....air 21', ground 27'

Another Storm, couldn't be?!

Well, well, what do we have here?  Going to get pounded again, a dusting, 2-3" or just miss us?  Let me guess, its too far out to tell!  More updates as the storm approaches.

The two main snow forecast models still have a major disagreement with only 24 hours to go.

The MDL is showing 4-6" across the Kansas City area with 6-8" further southwest.

The local NWS office in Pleasant Hill is offering 2.8" using the Garcia model for now.

 

A private forecast model that I pay for is showing the 4-6" nearly direct hit and given the fact that model is already 9 hours old, I'd have to rule it out at the moment and lean towards the local NWS predictions.  I also didn't use that model in this mornings email because it was going against all thinking at the time.

 

The problem with forecasting the amount of snow this time is a different in that cold air is already in place with two more fronts to come through before and during tomorrow's snow.  This raises the snow potential to nearly 1:18, meaning that as little as 1/4" liquid = 4.5" snow.  Most snow ratios are 1:10 = 2.5" [thus, the model differences].

 

Having explained all the above, I am sticking with this mornings emailed forecast of a local average of the 2.8" with increasing heavier amounts as you go further southwest.  Northeast areas such as Liberty and Excelsior Springs may actually not get anything at all.

 

I'll send out other final Monday update later this afternoon with snow timing and updated amounts projected.

 

 

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com