Good morning kc!

This mornings models have somewhat trimmed back the chances for accumulating snow tonight particularly south of the river where nothing may happen. Areas north of I-70 within the KC metro, may receive 1/2" to 3/4" of light dry snow mostly after 5 PM to about midnight. The ground temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing when the snow arrives after a high today of 38. A more significant event is setting up for next Wednesday-Friday.

December 8, will it be white again?

December 8th, could it be the first real snow? Models show little to no snow, some snow, but most are favoring the best chance of accumulation is North of I-70. It is 16 hours away but something that needs to be watched. We intend to give an update as soon as we have convincing evidence. For Now, North of I-70 has the best chance for accumulation...south of the river, wunderground.com is saying, slight chance. We will keep you updated.

Late summer is here, with scorching temps.  Make sure to watch out for out friends in a bag so they don't eat your plants.  Also a good time to start thinking about snow!

Event Report from the 20th-21st

Below is the forecast for the event and then you will see the “summary” props to Gary Brener who is our private forecaster this season and is a local guy and not very well known but pretty accurate.
Winter Storm Warning through 6 AM Thursday
Snow is expected to arrive about noon on the Kansas side spreading over the entire area by early afternoon.
noon- 6 PM 2.1"
6 PM-midnight 4.1" [heavy snow, nearly 1" per hour]
midnite-6 AM 1.0"
Widespread 5-7" totals.
Heaviest snow is now expected from downtown towards Clinton, 6-8"
The actually SUMMARY
Rates:
1-3 PM .45" [.15" per hour]
3-6 1.40" [ nearly a 1/2" per hour]
6-9 2.25 [ 3/4" per hour]---HEAVIEST SNOW
9-M 2.10 [ about 3/4" per hour]
M-3A .54 [.18 per hour]
3-6 .39 [.13 per hour]
Average snow totals: 7.13"
On some of your invoices you will see that we did a refreeze on 1/21 early am, then this band of snow was predicted to come and give us and 1” of snow. So even though we spread salt earlier and on some sites spot treated, if we spot treated we went back and did a full spread. We have discounted some invoices where applicable.
Here was the result of the 1/21 snow that really never occurred but regardless the ground and air temp validated the treatment, see below.
Most of the scattered snow showers this morning have clipped on through the area and some are expected to wrap back around later this afternoon will less than 1" on average.
10 AM....air 17', ground 25'
current....air 21', ground 27'

Another Storm, couldn't be?!

Well, well, what do we have here?  Going to get pounded again, a dusting, 2-3" or just miss us?  Let me guess, its too far out to tell!  More updates as the storm approaches.

The two main snow forecast models still have a major disagreement with only 24 hours to go.

The MDL is showing 4-6" across the Kansas City area with 6-8" further southwest.

The local NWS office in Pleasant Hill is offering 2.8" using the Garcia model for now.

 

A private forecast model that I pay for is showing the 4-6" nearly direct hit and given the fact that model is already 9 hours old, I'd have to rule it out at the moment and lean towards the local NWS predictions.  I also didn't use that model in this mornings email because it was going against all thinking at the time.

 

The problem with forecasting the amount of snow this time is a different in that cold air is already in place with two more fronts to come through before and during tomorrow's snow.  This raises the snow potential to nearly 1:18, meaning that as little as 1/4" liquid = 4.5" snow.  Most snow ratios are 1:10 = 2.5" [thus, the model differences].

 

Having explained all the above, I am sticking with this mornings emailed forecast of a local average of the 2.8" with increasing heavier amounts as you go further southwest.  Northeast areas such as Liberty and Excelsior Springs may actually not get anything at all.

 

I'll send out other final Monday update later this afternoon with snow timing and updated amounts projected.

 

 

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

Who has the Sled? Or shall I say who has power?

Right now, the snowfall looks to be 10-13" across the KC area and nearby area with the 10" being in northern Leavenworth County and 13" in the south eastern part of Jackson County-- Making downtown KC 11-12".

 

Snow timing:

 

                    Monday    Monday    Tuesday    Tuesday    Tuesday    Tuesday    Wednesday

                    12-6 P       6P-12        12- 6 A      6 A-noon    noon-6 P    6 P- 12       12-6 AM

 

Downtown        0              .25"            .50"         2.8"           5.4"           2.7"             .25"      Total 11.9"

rates per hour    0             .04"            .08"         .47"           .90"            .45"            .04"

 

HERE we go again!

GOOD AFTERNOON - This is a significant event that is about to approach our city.  We will be posting more on what to expect and what we need to do to prepare for this as time gets closer.  look for my responses in yellow and red below...

The biggest news in the update is the significant expected snowfall late Tuesday from this mornings update.  Tuesday afternoon between noon and 6 PM will likely approach BLIZZARD CONDITIONS with snowfall rates nearly 1" per hour.

 

10:00 AM.  Update from the NWS.

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE
  CITIES OF ST. JOSEPH...KANSAS
  CITY...BUTLER...CLINTON...MARYVILLE...ALBANY AND WARRENSBURG.

* TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE
  POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
  SNOWFALL WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
  TUESDAY NIGHT.  MORE TIMING INFORMATION BELOW.  ***we will be pre-treating all properties.

* SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE UP TO A TENTH OF
  AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
  ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN
  SOME AREAS.

* IMPACTS...THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE IN MULTIPLE WAVES. FREEZING
  DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO ICY CONDITIONS ON
  PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS BY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ONCE
  SNOW ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED
  AND TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON TUESDAY.
  THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TRAVEL TO A HALT OVER MUCH OF
  MISSOURI ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
  WITH HIGHLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. FALLING TEMPERATURES
  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO BY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 

TIMING:

    Today

        6 pm- midnight    15%    freezing drizzle                            little or no impact

    Monday

        midnight to 6 am  40%   freezing drizzle/rain                      some slick spots Pre-treating monday 3:00 am

        6 am- noon          50%   freezing drizzle/rain                      .05" ice

        noon- 6 pm          30%   frzn dzzle/rain-south, snow north   .05  additional ice Pending on what actually occurs we may treat prior to mix.

        6 pm- midnite       70%   mix to snow                                .3" (1/4" snow mostly north of I-70)

    Tuesday

        midnight to 6 am  70%   light snow                                   .6" (1/2" snow)

        6 am to noon       100%  moderate snow                           2.4" (almost 1/2" per hour)

        noon to 6 pm        100% heavy snow                                5.2" (close to 1" per hour)

        6 pm to midnite     80%  snow                                          1.6" (1/4" per hour)

    Wednesday

        midnight to 6 am   80%  light snow                                    .3 (1/4" additional)

 

    TOTAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATION 10.4"

 

 

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

13" inches of white snow forcasted for the winter of 2011 and it's still coming!!!

Well, this is still a way's out and actually I may be crazy for posting this, this early but this is what we are seeing and hearing.  It would be one heck of an event if it does hold together, we will keep you updated as we get new information.  The last event was pretty much dead on to Gary's forecast with kclongranger.

Next weeks storm is actually 3 different storms that will combine into a three day event ending with a possible 12" of snow late Tuesday and early Wednesday if it holds together.

 

The first part of the storm is now beginning to show signs of a major freezing rain event beginning as early as Sunday night and lasting most of the day Monday until the second part of the storm arrives late Monday night.

 

Light snow is expected to arrive Monday night about 6 PM and will likely be a mix in areas mostly south of the river until midnight.

 

Tuesday will be light snow early, then moderate snow with the heaviest being in the afternoon.  Forecast models are showing 10" by midnight on Tuesday with and additional 2" early Wednesday. 

 

 

Good News or bad news?

This is the weather report that we just received.  We will keep you posted as necessary.  Also attached is the current radar image for why we spread salt.

Most of the scattered snow showers this morning have clipped on through the area and some are expected to wrap back around later this afternoon with less than 1" on average.

 

The storm due late Saturday into Sunday is looking at this moment to take a northerly track leaving KC in the general 2-4" range with 4" north of the River and 2" south.   This storm is still 36 hours away and may still change directions.

 

I'll update again this afternoon.

 

 

KC Long Range Weather, www.kclongrangeweather.com

current radar

Snow in KC last night and will be winter like all week!

Wow it really snowed in KC, and it snowed a descent amount in some spots.  Mostly Olathe areas got the most ( some spots almost 2") while NKC and North Overland Park only received a 1/4-1/2 inch.

Here is the projection as of 11:30 am Sunday.  We will be updating the blog and sending out an email later on today / tonight with our plan.  

As of now, no office complexes have been treated (unless they have 24 hour service), and we do not intend to do so till early AM hours, we will clear the walks at this point before work tomorrow and hold off on plowing and or salting.  We are thinking based on the time line to start doing drive lanes around 10:00 am.  

All snow personal on standby till Wednesday.

 

                                KCI-Platte Woods     Olathe     Lees Summit     Liberty      Platte City

 

11:30- midnight                dusting                dusting    dusting            dusting        .20

 

midnight- 6 AM                .3                        .4            .1                    .3                .4

 

6 AM to noon                    2.1                    2.1            1.9                   2.1            2.2

 

noon to 6 PM                    2.3                    2.3             2.3                  2.3            2.3

 

6 PM to midnight               1.8                    1.6            1.9                    1.9           1.7

 

midnight to 6 AM               .5                        .3            .8                    .9                .8

 

TOTALS                            7"                   6.7"            7"                       7.5"        7.4"

 

Dusting

It is 12:50 PM in Overland Park and there is an 1/8" of snow, falling at a fast paste, may pick up a 1/2".

Animate Map

Storm Tracks

Total Precipitation

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Regional Radar

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Zoom Map Click: Zoom In Zoom Out Pan Map (Full Zoom Out)   Frame Navigation: View / Save This Image « Oldest | Previous | Next | Newest » 342 secs Radar Tip: Try clicking and dragging on the map above to make a zoom box. Click Advanced Radar Types on the left to select scientific radar types.

Will it really snow?

All spotters and all snow crews on standby till further notice.  

Isolated flurries through the night.  No accumulation.

Sunday....A continued chance of flurries through the day with nothing much happening until about after midnight into early Monday morning.

 

Monday will have snow becoming moderate snow through the day.

 

Between 4 AM and Midnight, I expect about 4 inches with the heaviest to fall in the mid day.  Some areas mainly north west may get up to 8".  Snow will continue through the night into Tuesday morning.

 

I expect the NWS will issue a Heavy Snow Warning tomorrow afternoon. 

 

 

Will it really snow?

Will it really snow?  The outlook was a rain/snow mix starting Saturday evening going through Tuesday, but it appears that it will be cloudy Saturday night now and 30% chance of snow From Sunday through Monday.  This is still a few days away, we just wanted to give you a heads up.

Thanks and enjoy the shining SUN!

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 44. West northwest wind around 9 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. West northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Cloudy, with a high near 30.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22.